Published in Nature on January 27, 2005
Learning from evidence in a complex world. Am J Public Health (2006) 5.87
Ecological and immunological determinants of dengue epidemics. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A (2006) 2.92
Seasonal infectious disease epidemiology. Proc Biol Sci (2006) 2.62
Synchronous cycles of domestic dog rabies in sub-Saharan Africa and the impact of control efforts. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A (2007) 2.34
Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in dynamic contact networks. Proc Biol Sci (2007) 2.15
Stochastic amplification in epidemics. J R Soc Interface (2007) 1.95
Revealing the microscale spatial signature of dengue transmission and immunity in an urban population. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A (2012) 1.63
China's syphilis epidemic: epidemiology, proximate determinants of spread, and control responses. Curr Opin Infect Dis (2011) 1.52
Sexually transmitted diseases in the USA: temporal trends. Sex Transm Infect (2007) 1.21
Enhanced vaccine control of epidemics in adaptive networks. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys (2010) 1.14
Autonomous targeting of infectious superspreaders using engineered transmissible therapies. PLoS Comput Biol (2011) 1.10
Stochasticity in staged models of epidemics: quantifying the dynamics of whooping cough. J R Soc Interface (2010) 1.09
Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Modeling Epidemic Dynamics of Enterovirus Serotypes and Implications for Vaccination. PLoS Med (2016) 0.99
Relation between the HIV and the re-emerging syphilis epidemic among MSM in Germany: an analysis based on anonymous surveillance data. Sex Transm Infect (2005) 0.98
Spatio-temporal waves and targeted vaccination in recurrent epidemic network models. J R Soc Interface (2008) 0.97
Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations. PLoS One (2011) 0.96
Syphilis in China: the great comeback. Emerg Health Threats J (2008) 0.95
Apparent seasonality of parasite dynamics: analysis of cyclic prevalence patterns. Proc Biol Sci (2006) 0.94
Sexual risk behavior in men attending Mardi Gras celebrations in New Orleans, Louisiana. J Community Health (2007) 0.93
Epidemic cycles driven by host behaviour. J R Soc Interface (2014) 0.91
Maximal sensitive dependence and the optimal path to epidemic extinction. Bull Math Biol (2010) 0.90
Converging towards the optimal path to extinction. J R Soc Interface (2011) 0.89
Intervention-based stochastic disease eradication. PLoS One (2013) 0.89
Sexually transmitted diseases: epidemic cycling and immunity. Nature (2005) 0.89
Temporal trends in syphilis and gonorrhea incidences in guangdong province, china. J Infect Dis (2013) 0.86
The interaction of seasonal forcing and immunity and the resonance dynamics of malaria. J R Soc Interface (2009) 0.85
A metapopulation modelling framework for gonorrhoea and other sexually transmitted infections in heterosexual populations. J R Soc Interface (2008) 0.85
Screen more or screen more often? Using mathematical models to inform syphilis control strategies. BMC Public Health (2013) 0.85
Cohort effects in dynamic models and their impact on vaccination programmes: an example from hepatitis A. BMC Infect Dis (2006) 0.83
Editorial commentary: China, HIV, and syphilis among men who have sex with men: an urgent call to action. Clin Infect Dis (2013) 0.82
The impact of coinfections and their simultaneous transmission on antigenic diversity and epidemic cycling of infectious diseases. Biomed Res Int (2014) 0.81
A decline in the prevalence of injecting drug users in Estonia, 2005-2009. Int J Drug Policy (2013) 0.80
A double-edged sword: does highly active antiretroviral therapy contribute to syphilis incidence by impairing immunity to Treponema pallidum? Sex Transm Infect (2017) 0.79
Demographic buffering: titrating the effects of birth rate and imperfect immunity on epidemic dynamics. J R Soc Interface (2015) 0.79
The impact of syphilis screening among female sex workers in China: a modelling study. PLoS One (2013) 0.79
Local variations in spatial synchrony of influenza epidemics. PLoS One (2012) 0.78
Strain Interactions as a Mechanism for Dominant Strain Alternation and Incidence Oscillation in Infectious Diseases: Seasonal Influenza as a Case Study. PLoS One (2015) 0.78
Converging seasonal prevalence dynamics in experimental epidemics. BMC Ecol (2011) 0.78
A Homology Model Reveals Novel Structural Features and an Immunodominant Surface Loop/Opsonic Target in the Treponema pallidum BamA Ortholog TP_0326. J Bacteriol (2015) 0.77
Sexually transmitted infections in Canada: A sticky situation. Can J Infect Dis Med Microbiol (2011) 0.76
International society for disease surveillance conference 2011: building the future of public health surveillance. Emerg Health Threats J (2011) 0.75
Paradoxical effects of coupling infectious livestock populations and imposing transport restrictions. Proc Biol Sci (2015) 0.75
Complex Dynamical Behaviour in an Epidemic Model with Control. Bull Math Biol (2016) 0.75
Outbreak of early syphilis in an institution for the care of adults with mental disorders. Epidemiol Infect (2005) 0.75
Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature (2005) 30.92
Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature (2006) 25.20
Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions. Science (2003) 12.26
Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong. Lancet (2003) 10.74
Rapid pneumococcal evolution in response to clinical interventions. Science (2011) 9.09
Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A (2008) 8.27
Sexual mixing patterns and sex-differentials in teenage exposure to HIV infection in rural Zimbabwe. Lancet (2002) 7.64
HIV decline associated with behavior change in eastern Zimbabwe. Science (2006) 6.98
Assessing the severity of the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic. BMJ (2009) 6.66
Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the United States. N Engl J Med (2009) 6.65
HIV-1 transmission, by stage of infection. J Infect Dis (2008) 6.57
Effect of concurrent sexual partnerships on rate of new HIV infections in a high-prevalence, rural South African population: a cohort study. Lancet (2011) 5.58
HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa. PLoS Med (2012) 4.08
Reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventions. PLoS Med (2006) 3.86
Public health. Public health risk from the avian H5N1 influenza epidemic. Science (2004) 3.71
An estimate of the global prevalence and incidence of herpes simplex virus type 2 infection. Bull World Health Organ (2008) 3.62
Fuzzy species among recombinogenic bacteria. BMC Biol (2005) 3.47
New strategies for the elimination of polio from India. Science (2006) 3.27
CD4 cell counts of 800 cells/mm3 or greater after 7 years of highly active antiretroviral therapy are feasible in most patients starting with 350 cells/mm3 or greater. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr (2007) 3.18
Effects of unconditional and conditional cash transfers on child health and development in Zimbabwe: a cluster-randomised trial. Lancet (2013) 2.98
West African Ebola epidemic after one year--slowing but not yet under control. N Engl J Med (2014) 2.96
Optimal uses of antiretrovirals for prevention in HIV-1 serodiscordant heterosexual couples in South Africa: a modelling study. PLoS Med (2011) 2.76
Seasonal infectious disease epidemiology. Proc Biol Sci (2006) 2.62
A systematic review and meta-analysis of quantitative interviewing tools to investigate self-reported HIV and STI associated behaviours in low- and middle-income countries. Int J Epidemiol (2010) 2.59
Impact and process evaluation of integrated community and clinic-based HIV-1 control: a cluster-randomised trial in eastern Zimbabwe. PLoS Med (2007) 2.56
Hyper-recombination, diversity, and antibiotic resistance in pneumococcus. Science (2009) 2.54
Epidemiology, transmission dynamics and control of SARS: the 2002-2003 epidemic. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci (2004) 2.45
The epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome in the 2003 Hong Kong epidemic: an analysis of all 1755 patients. Ann Intern Med (2004) 2.36
Assessing the reliability of eBURST using simulated populations with known ancestry. BMC Microbiol (2007) 2.36
Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission. Nat Rev Microbiol (2008) 2.32
A resurgent HIV-1 epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of potent antiretroviral therapy. AIDS (2008) 2.25
Ebola virus disease among children in West Africa. N Engl J Med (2015) 2.17
Attitudes and acceptance of oral and parenteral HIV preexposure prophylaxis among potential user groups: a multinational study. PLoS One (2012) 2.09
The impact of homologous recombination on the generation of diversity in bacteria. J Theor Biol (2005) 1.99
Concurrent sexual partnerships and primary HIV infection: a critical interaction. AIDS Behav (2011) 1.95
A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics. Am J Epidemiol (2013) 1.94
Sequences, sequence clusters and bacterial species. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci (2006) 1.91
Identifying currents in the gene pool for bacterial populations using an integrative approach. PLoS Comput Biol (2009) 1.89
The Early Transmission Dynamics of H1N1pdm Influenza in the United Kingdom. PLoS Curr (2009) 1.87
Studies needed to address public health challenges of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: insights from modeling. PLoS Med (2010) 1.83
Estimating HIV Incidence, Time to Diagnosis, and the Undiagnosed HIV Epidemic Using Routine Surveillance Data. Epidemiology (2015) 1.83
Handheld computers for self-administered sensitive data collection: a comparative study in Peru. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak (2008) 1.82
HIV treatment as prevention: debate and commentary--will early infection compromise treatment-as-prevention strategies? PLoS Med (2012) 1.76
Beer halls as a focus for HIV prevention activities in rural Zimbabwe. Sex Transm Dis (2005) 1.72
Evidence that pneumococcal serotype replacement in Massachusetts following conjugate vaccination is now complete. Epidemics (2010) 1.72
HIV-1 transmitting couples have similar viral load set-points in Rakai, Uganda. PLoS Pathog (2010) 1.69
Patterns of movement and risk of HIV infection in rural Zimbabwe. J Infect Dis (2005) 1.62
Critique of early models of the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa based on contemporary empirical data from Zimbabwe. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A (2007) 1.58
Modelling bacterial speciation. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci (2006) 1.55
Sex with stitches: assessing the resumption of sexual activity during the postcircumcision wound-healing period. AIDS (2012) 1.54
The future of the HIV pandemic. Bull World Health Organ (2005) 1.50
Epidemiological and genetic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Lancet Infect Dis (2004) 1.43
New insights into the evolutionary rate of HIV-1 at the within-host and epidemiological levels. Proc Biol Sci (2012) 1.43
Patterns of self-reported behaviour change associated with receiving voluntary counselling and testing in a longitudinal study from Manicaland, Zimbabwe. AIDS Behav (2009) 1.41
Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza. J R Soc Interface (2011) 1.40
Transmission characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: comparison of 8 Southern hemisphere countries. PLoS Pathog (2011) 1.38
No coexistence for free: neutral null models for multistrain pathogens. Epidemics (2008) 1.37
What is the mechanism for persistent coexistence of drug-susceptible and drug-resistant strains of Streptococcus pneumoniae? J R Soc Interface (2009) 1.30
27 years of the HIV epidemic amongst men having sex with men in the Netherlands: an in depth mathematical model-based analysis. Epidemics (2010) 1.26
Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study. PLoS One (2012) 1.25
SARS-CoV antibody prevalence in all Hong Kong patient contacts. Emerg Infect Dis (2004) 1.23
Within-host and between-host evolutionary rates across the HIV-1 genome. Retrovirology (2013) 1.21
Chapter 18: Public health policy for cervical cancer prevention: the role of decision science, economic evaluation, and mathematical modeling. Vaccine (2006) 1.20
Viral load levels measured at set-point have risen over the last decade of the HIV epidemic in the Netherlands. PLoS One (2009) 1.20
The final stages of the global eradication of poliomyelitis. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci (2013) 1.18
The epidemiological and control implications of HIV transmission probabilities within partnerships. Sex Transm Dis (2002) 1.17
Measuring and correcting biased child mortality statistics in countries with generalized epidemics of HIV infection. Bull World Health Organ (2010) 1.17
The effectiveness of contact tracing in emerging epidemics. PLoS One (2006) 1.15
The cost-effectiveness of syndromic management in pharmacies in Lima, Peru. Sex Transm Dis (2003) 1.15
Understanding the modes of transmission model of new HIV infection and its use in prevention planning. Bull World Health Organ (2012) 1.14
Estimating the public health impact of the effect of herpes simplex virus suppressive therapy on plasma HIV-1 viral load. AIDS (2009) 1.11
Patterns of uptake of HIV testing in sub-Saharan Africa in the pre-treatment era. Trop Med Int Health (2012) 1.10
Ebola Virus Disease among Male and Female Persons in West Africa. N Engl J Med (2016) 1.08
HIV treatment as prevention: optimising the impact of expanded HIV treatment programmes. PLoS Med (2012) 1.08
Integrating phylodynamics and epidemiology to estimate transmission diversity in viral epidemics. PLoS Comput Biol (2013) 1.07
How the dynamics and structure of sexual contact networks shape pathogen phylogenies. PLoS Comput Biol (2013) 1.05
Phylogenetic studies of transmission dynamics in generalized HIV epidemics: an essential tool where the burden is greatest? J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr (2014) 1.03
The relationship between real-time and discrete-generation models of epidemic spread. Math Biosci (2008) 1.02
A strong case for viral genetic factors in HIV virulence. Viruses (2011) 1.01
The potential effects of changing HIV treatment policy on tuberculosis outcomes in South Africa: results from three tuberculosis-HIV transmission models. AIDS (2014) 1.01
Modelling sexual transmission of HIV: testing the assumptions, validating the predictions. Curr Opin HIV AIDS (2010) 1.01
Evaluating the proximate determinants framework for HIV infection in rural Zimbabwe. Sex Transm Infect (2007) 1.00
Transmission selects for HIV-1 strains of intermediate virulence: a modelling approach. PLoS Comput Biol (2011) 0.97
Is HIV short-sighted? Insights from a multistrain nested model. Evolution (2013) 0.96
Increasing adolescent HIV prevalence in Eastern Zimbabwe--evidence of long-term survivors of mother-to-child transmission? PLoS One (2013) 0.96
Quantifying the transmissibility of human influenza and its seasonal variation in temperate regions. PLoS Curr (2009) 0.95
Has the rate of CD4 cell count decline before initiation of antiretroviral therapy changed over the course of the Dutch HIV epidemic among MSM? PLoS One (2013) 0.95
After Ebola in West Africa--Unpredictable Risks, Preventable Epidemics. N Engl J Med (2016) 0.94
Phylodynamic inference and model assessment with approximate bayesian computation: influenza as a case study. PLoS Comput Biol (2012) 0.94
Chapter 30: HPV vaccines and screening in the prevention of cervical cancer; conclusions from a 2006 workshop of international experts. Vaccine (2006) 0.94
Inferring pandemic growth rates from sequence data. J R Soc Interface (2012) 0.93
Chapter 29: Knowledge gaps and priorities for research on prevention of HPV infection and cervical cancer. Vaccine (2006) 0.92
Increasing sexual risk behaviour among Dutch men who have sex with men: mathematical models versus prospective cohort data. AIDS (2012) 0.91
The clinical interpretation of viral blips in HIV patients receiving antiviral treatment: are we ready to infer poor adherence? J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr (2012) 0.91
Did national HIV prevention programs contribute to HIV decline in Eastern Zimbabwe? Evidence from a prospective community survey. Sex Transm Dis (2011) 0.90
Historical zoonoses and other changes in host tropism of Staphylococcus aureus, identified by phylogenetic analysis of a population dataset. PLoS One (2013) 0.90
Monitoring trends in HIV prevalence among young people, aged 15 to 24 years, in Manicaland, Zimbabwe. J Int AIDS Soc (2011) 0.88